The indexes barely moved this week, but the internal breadth picture did — and that gap between a calm market surface and softening underlying conditions is the real story. The FUM Market Strength Indicator slipped from 57.97% to 50.34%, crossing from solidly bullish territory into the neutral zone for the first time since mid-July. Energy and Precious Metals are running at full strength, but most of the market is fading quietly in the background. Here is what changed, and what the data shows.
Below: where the breadth signal stands now, what the indexes and sectors are doing, which signals delivered the week's strongest results, two that didn't, and what the macro data are saying underneath.
Breadth moved while prices didn't. The MSI closed Friday at 50.34% — down 7.63 points from 57.97% the prior week — its first Friday close below 51% since mid-July. That's still above the 40% line that separates neutral from bearish, but the trend of the reading is important context: the MSI has fallen for seven straight sessions.
The FUM Crypto Strength Indicator closed at 80.00%, down from 100.00% last Friday — a 20-point weekly pullback that still leaves crypto breadth firmly in bullish territory. The FUM Regime Index came in at 57.8 (Neutral) on Friday, down from 62.9 the prior week. The regime hasn't changed, but the direction is consistent with the broader softening.
Notable divergence: The MSI/CSI gap hit extreme territory during the prior week, peaking at 42.03 percentage points on August 28 — above the 40-point extreme threshold and the widest reading in the 10-day lookback window. Crypto was running at 100% breadth while equities held near 58%. Over this week, that gap narrowed to 29.66 points as the CSI pulled back from historic highs. The divergence is closing but hasn't cleared.
| ETF | Prior Friday Close | This Friday Close | Weekly % | Long-Term | Short-Term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 769.35 | 770.19 | +0.11% | BULL | UP |
| QQQ | 716.43 | 718.96 | +0.35% | BULL | UP |
| DIA | 535.06 | 534.08 | −0.18% | BULL | UP |
| IYT | 86.39 | 84.17 | −2.57% | BULL | DOWN |
| IWM | 295.75 | 296.01 | +0.09% | BULL | DOWN |
| SOXX | 508.62 | 519.86 | +2.21% | BULL | DOWN |
The index-level read is deceptively quiet. SPY and QQQ barely moved. The more telling data: IYT (Transportation) fell −2.57% and is in a DOWN short-term signal — transportation tends to read demand, and this week's action wasn't constructive. IWM (small-caps) was nearly flat but remains in a DOWN short-term signal. SOXX (semiconductors) added +2.21% on the week, the best of the six, but is still in a DOWN short-term trend despite the long-term BULL regime. Large-cap tech is carrying the index picture; the breadth underneath isn't.
Top of the board (≥80): Energy 100.00%, Precious Metals 100.00%, Communication Services 84.62%, MSCI 80.95%
Strong participation (70–79): Basic Materials 71.05%
Mid-field (50–69): Healthcare 69.12%, Currency 60.00%, Index 58.49%, Consumer Defensive 57.89%, Sector Spyder 57.14%, Technology 50.94%
Lagging (<50): Financial Services 48.61%, Consumer Cyclical 39.58%, Industrials 31.25%, Inverse Index 21.05%, Real Estate 17.86%, Fixed Income 12.50%, Utilities 7.69%, Volatility 0.00%
Energy is the only sector with both full breadth (100%) and a rising 20-trading-day trajectory (+16.1 points over 20 days). Precious Metals is at 100% but flat over the same window. Most of what's behind the top two is fading — Consumer Cyclical dropped 30.5 points over 20 trading days, Industrials fell 33.8 points, and Real Estate declined 25.5 points over the same stretch. The Inverse Index rising to 21.05% from 10.53% last week signals that more hedging instruments are in UP trends — not an alarm, but a directional marker worth watching. The strength behind Energy and Precious Metals shows up most clearly in the individual names in the Leaderboard below.
XLE (Energy) gained +2.20% this week and is now +13.38% since its UP signal opened July 15 at $56.50. XLV (Healthcare) added a modest +0.17%, carrying +15.73% since the May 21 open at $148.15. XLF (Financials) was flat on the week but is +11.24% from the June 10 open at $52.23. XLK (Technology) gained +0.86% but its UP signal, open since August 7 at $187.97, is essentially flat (−0.37%) — the tech SPDR has delivered this week but hasn't compounded from signal open. XLB (Materials) and XLP (Consumer Staples) both declined on the week (−1.39% and −1.02%) while holding UP signals.
XLI (Industrials) fell −1.06%, its DOWN signal capturing +2.81% since August 26 at $180.34. XLRE (Real Estate) declined −1.24%; its DOWN signal is barely two days old, opened September 3. XLU (Utilities) edged up +0.82% despite sitting in a BEAR long-term, DOWN short-term regime — the utility sector remains one of the weakest on the sector board at 7.69% breadth.
The strongest UP signal of the week was earnings-driven at the top, with hardware and agriculture providing most of the rest of the fuel.
DELL — Dell Technologies (Technology) rose +14.94% on the week, from $456.01 Monday to $524.14 Friday. The UP signal has been open since February 27 at $148.08, putting the cumulative gain at +253.96%. FUM Score 95. Dell reported quarterly results this week and the numbers were strong enough to push the stock higher by nearly $70 in four sessions — continuing one of the more durable runs in the tech hardware space this cycle.
FMC — FMC Corporation (Basic Materials) gained +12.49% on the week, climbing from $11.53 Monday to $12.97 Friday. The UP signal opened August 27 at $10.66, and the position is now +21.67% from that entry. FUM Score 85. FMC is an agricultural chemicals company, and this week's move fits the broader commodity and hard-asset bid that's been pushing Energy and Precious Metals breadth to the top of the board.
SWKS — Skyworks Solutions (Technology) added +10.46%, moving from $67.01 Monday to $74.02 Friday. The UP signal has been open since August 5 at $66.99, and the position is +10.49% from signal open. FUM Score 95. Semiconductor component suppliers have been recovering as the chip cycle stabilizes, and Skyworks caught the stronger piece of that move this week.
MSTR — MicroStrategy (Technology) gained +7.41%, rising from $132.94 Monday to $142.80 Friday. The UP signal opened August 24 at $122.63, cumulative +16.45%. FUM Score 85. MicroStrategy functions as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, and crypto's continued strength at 80% breadth keeps the name in play — though the long-term trend remains BEAR, making this a tactical rather than structural signal.
GTLB — GitLab (Technology) advanced +7.07%, from $46.54 Monday to $49.83 Friday. The UP signal has been open since July 2 at $32.07, and the cumulative gain stands at +55.38%. FUM Score 95. GitLab is a DevOps platform that benefits from enterprise software spending, and it's been one of the quieter but more consistent compounders in the UP signal universe this summer.
ORCL — Oracle (Technology) rose +6.47%, from $149.12 Monday to $158.78 Friday. The UP signal opened August 10 at $151.05, with a cumulative gain of +5.12%. FUM Score 85. Oracle reports fiscal Q1 results in September, and this week's price action suggests the market anticipated positive news from the enterprise database and cloud business. Like MSTR, Oracle carries a BEAR long-term designation — this signal is tactical rather than structural.
The week's top UP performers concentrated in Technology — led by a pair of strong earnings stories from Dell and Oracle — with FMC's move standing out as the clearest expression of the commodity rotation that's been building across Energy and Precious Metals.
The freshest UP signals from the past two sessions, posted before they've had time to make the Leaderboard.
ADM — Archer-Daniels-Midland (Consumer Defensive) flipped UP on September 3 at $84.38. FUM Score 95, BULL long-term. Agricultural processing that sits adjacent to the same commodity demand story driving Energy and Basic Materials breadth.
CI — The Cigna Group (Healthcare) flipped UP on September 3 at $286.26. FUM Score 95, BULL long-term. Healthcare breadth is at 69.12% and has gained +4.4 points over 20 trading days — Cigna enters the signal from a constructive sector backdrop.
VTRS — Viatris (Healthcare) flipped UP on September 3 at $16.94. FUM Score 95, BULL long-term. Generic pharmaceuticals, same Healthcare sector context as above.
WLKP — Westlake Chemical Partners LP (Basic Materials) flipped UP on September 3 at $21.93. FUM Score 95, BULL long-term. Chemical infrastructure adjacent to the Energy leadership story — Basic Materials sits at 71.05% breadth.
CENX — Century Aluminum (Basic Materials) flipped UP on September 4 at $46.77. FUM Score 85, BEAR long-term — a tactical setup, not a structural one. Aluminum cycles with industrial and energy demand; the BEAR long-term designation means this requires confirmation to carry weight.
The DOWN Leaderboard this week was defined by two sharp earnings-driven collapses and two longer-running slides that continued on pace.
FICO — Fair Isaac Corporation (Technology) declined −18.74% on the week, from $1,147.21 Monday to $932.26 Friday. The DOWN signal opened September 3 at $1,118.93, with the position already at +16.68% cumulative gain after just two sessions. FUM Score 5. The signal opened Thursday as the stock started rolling over, and Friday's session took it sharply lower — consistent with significant guidance or earnings news hitting a stock with elevated valuation.
LULU — Lululemon Athletica (Consumer Cyclical) fell −16.34% on the week, from $120.26 Monday to $100.61 Friday. The DOWN signal has been open since August 21 at $121.07, and the cumulative gain on the signal is +16.90%. FUM Score 5. Lululemon traded essentially stable through Thursday before falling sharply on Friday — consistent with an earnings release that disappointed. Consumer Cyclical sits at 39.58% breadth and declining; LULU's Friday move fits the broader sector direction.
NIO — NIO Inc. (Consumer Cyclical) dropped −10.17% on the week, from $4.23 Monday to $3.80 Friday. The DOWN signal has been in place since May 7 at $5.87, with cumulative gains now at +35.26% — the stock has fallen 35% from the signal open. FUM Score 0. EV sector weakness and China growth headwinds have been the persistent backdrop; this week's decline extends a months-long trend rather than introducing a new narrative.
TSN — Tyson Foods (Consumer Defensive) declined −6.74% on the week, from $55.14 Monday to $51.42 Friday. DOWN signal open since August 11 at $56.43, cumulative +8.88%. FUM Score 5. Food processing margins have been under sustained pressure, and Tyson continues to move in the direction the signal identified more than three weeks ago.
The week's top DOWN performers clustered in Consumer Cyclical and Consumer Defensive — sectors where breadth has been sliding for weeks. The FICO and LULU moves add an earnings-driven layer, with fresh DOWN signals catching some of the sharpest single-week declines in the universe.
Not every signal works. Two from this week worth naming, with what we know about why.
W — Wayfair (Consumer Cyclical) has been in an UP signal since August 4, 2026, at $116.08. As of Friday's close, the stock sits at $99.43 — putting the signal at −14.34% from open. FUM Score has slipped to 35. Wayfair was essentially flat on the week (opening Monday at $99.27, closing Friday at $99.43), but the signal has been underwater for the full holding period. The UP signal opened into what the data flagged as a recovery setup in online retail, but the stock has traded consistently below the entry price without developing upward momentum.
EIX — Edison International (Utilities) opened UP on August 26 at $74.51 and closed the signal on September 2 at $55.19, locking in a −25.93% loss when the trend flipped to DOWN. The signal opened on the same session that EIX reached its recent high — after a period in which the stock had risen from a prior DOWN signal — and within days the stock fell sharply. By August 31, EIX was at $53.98, a drop of more than 27% from the signal open in three sessions. The position closed before any recovery materialized.
Every system has trades that don't cooperate. The discipline is in keeping them small. Across all active signals tracked by FUM, the trend identification has aligned with subsequent price action at the following rates: UP-side alignment: 408 reported, 331 correct, 81%. DOWN-side alignment: 405 reported, 285 correct, 70%. Combined: 813 reported, 616 correct, 76%. Of the aligned UP signals, 53% are sitting on double-digit gains, including 5 at triple-digit gains. Most underwater UP signals are within single digits — though Wayfair above has run further than that. The system's discipline is to call direction correctly while letting the winners run and keeping the losers small. The math above is what that looks like in practice.
Every name on the FUM Leaderboard, in Signals to Watch, and among the trades that didn't cooperate is part of a larger universe of more than 800 active trends tracked in the FUM Signals Table — sortable by start date, sector, P&L, conviction score, and more. The Leaderboard is the spotlight. The Signals Table is the full picture.
FUM publishes underperforming signals every weekend because studying them is part of how the model adapts. Every loss is data. Every pattern in the losses, over time, is feedback that sharpens the math behind the next signal.
The base case is cautious. The MSI at 50.34% is sitting in the middle of neutral territory — where a market that doesn't yet know which way it's going tends to live. The breadth erosion this week — most cyclical sectors sliding, the Inverse Index rising — looks more like rotating into commodities under some stress than a clean rotation into growth. Energy and Precious Metals are holding, which supports the idea this isn't an outright breakdown, but most of the board isn't confirming stability.
Three markers that could change the read:
Risk marker 1: The MSI closing below 40% would move the system from neutral to officially bearish breadth territory. That's the line that has historically separated mixed conditions from broadly defensive ones, and breaching it would represent a meaningful escalation of what this week's data is showing.
Risk marker 2: Energy breadth fading from 100% would remove the last fully-intact pillar of the current sector picture. If Energy starts to crack while the rest of the board continues to erode, the case for near-term stabilization weakens considerably.
Risk marker 3: The Inverse Index breadth continuing to climb from 21.05% would signal growing defensive positioning across a broader slice of the universe. It's risen from 10.53% to 21.05% in one week — not alarming yet, but directionally worth watching.
What would signal the weakness is accelerating? The first place the read would change is if the MSI closes below 40%. That threshold — the boundary between neutral and bearish — is the observable that matters most in the next two weeks. A close below 40% wouldn't be a single bad session; it would be a breadth confirmation that the internal damage has crossed a meaningful line.
We're watching for that. The standing rule, as always: follow the signals for best results, even when they seem counterintuitive. The math reads markets the way an experienced reader reads them; the discipline is in trusting the read.
The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and credit markets remain calm — those are the resilience markers. Against them: GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026 (as of Q2 2026 data), and core inflation is still running well above the Fed's 2% target at +3.34% year-over-year (as of July 2026). It's a picture of slowing growth with sticky inflation — not a crisis, but not a setup that gives the Fed much room to ease either.
Hiring is still adding to payrolls — +162,000 jobs in August — and the headline unemployment rate held at 4.1%, down −0.2 points from 4.3% a year ago. The broader U-6 measure, which counts underemployed and marginally attached workers, improved to 7.7% in August, down −0.2 points from July.
Wages are rising at 3.09% year-over-year: average hourly earnings hit $37.75 in August, up $0.10 from July and $1.13 above the August 2025 level of $36.62. That pace is faster than what the Fed needs to see to get inflation sustainably back to 2%. Labor force participation ticked up to 61.6% from 61.4% — a small but positive signal. Jobless claims came in at 206,000 for the week ending August 29, up 2,000 from the prior week, still well within historically contained territory.
Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — ran at +3.34% year-over-year with +0.25% month-over-month (as of July 2026). That's more than 1.3 points above the 2% target, and the monthly pace hasn't decelerated enough to suggest meaningful progress. Headline CPI came in at +3.30% year-over-year with a nearly flat +0.07% monthly reading (as of July 2026) — the soft monthly headline looks encouraging in isolation, but the core is what the Fed watches, and that hasn't budged materially.
The federal funds rate sits at 3.63% — cut from prior highs but still in restrictive territory relative to current inflation.
The economy expanded at 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026 (as of Q2 2026 data), down from 2.1% in Q1 and well below the 3.8% pace of Q2 2025. Real GDP reached $24,269.6 billion in Q2, with a quarter-over-quarter gain of $89.2 billion. Durable goods orders rose +1.08% in July to $339.4 billion (as of July 2026) — a positive monthly read on manufacturing demand. Industrial production added +0.20% in July (as of July 2026). The inventory-to-sales ratio held at 1.30 in June (as of June 2026), unchanged from May and near neutral — not signaling a destocking event or a rapid restocking cycle.
High-yield credit spreads — the extra yield investors demand to lend to lower-rated companies — sit at 2.65% as of September 3, up a minimal +0.02 points from 2.63% the prior week and tighter than the 3.13% level of a year ago. Credit markets are not signaling stress at current levels.
The 10-year minus 2-year yield spread is +0.43% as of September 3 — the curve is positively sloped. A year ago it was 0.61%, so it has compressed modestly but remains uninverted. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.71% in the week of September 3, up +0.05 points from 6.66% the prior week, continuing to weigh on housing affordability.
Building permits came in at 1,433,000 in July (as of July 2026), up from 1,374,000 in June — a +4.3% monthly gain that signals construction activity is still moving. Case-Shiller home prices rose +1.52% year-over-year and +0.13% month-over-month (as of June 2026), a much slower pace than the pandemic surge but still positive. The rental vacancy rate held at 7.3% in Q2 2026 (as of Q2 2026 data), unchanged from Q1.
Consumer sentiment edged up to 55.2 in July from 49.5 in June (as of July 2026) — a +5.7-point monthly improvement, though still −6.5 points below the 61.7 reading of July 2025. Households feel meaningfully less confident than a year ago. The personal saving rate rose to 3.0% in July from 2.6% in June (as of July 2026), a +0.4-point gain — but still well below pre-2020 norms, meaning households aren't building meaningful buffers at this pace.
Two readings push against a straightforwardly constructive outlook: core PCE running at +3.34% year-over-year with +0.25% monthly (as of July 2026) leaves the Fed in a restrictive posture it can't easily exit, and GDP growth at 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026 (as of Q2 data) represents less than half the pace of a year ago. Those two facts together describe a softening economy with inflation that hasn't yet given the Fed permission to ease.
The single largest forward macro risk is a reacceleration of inflation while growth stays soft. If the next two core PCE monthly prints don't drop closer to the +0.15–0.17% range, the expectation of any rate movement in 2026 becomes difficult to sustain — and that's the mechanism through which current credit-market calm could eventually give way to tighter financial conditions.
The indexes barely moved this week, but the breadth picture didn't — and how the MSI resolves from the neutral zone over the next two weeks will tell the story of whether this is a brief rotation into commodities or the early stages of a wider retreat.